Experts: U.S. is spending its way to financial ruin.
National Debt Nov. 1, 2006 $8,015,272,000,177
By Kevin G. Hall
Knight Ridder Newspapers
November 6, 2005
This
imbalance between what government takes in and what it spends is the federal
budget deficit. It totaled $319 billion in fiscal 2005, which ended Sept.
30.
To bridge that shortfall, the government takes on additional debt, 46 percent
of it now held by foreigners, especially the governments of Japan and China.
The gross national debt is now more than $8 trillion. The government owes
itself much of that in accounts such as the highway trust fund. When IOUs in
those accounts come due, the government just issues itself some more debt.
The net national debt — the amount that must be financed by borrowing in
capital markets, which affects interest rates and the economy — is a
mind-boggling $4.6 trillion.
"Unless the situation is reversed, at some point, these budget trends will
cause serious economic disruptions," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan
told Congress' Joint Economic Committee on Thursday.
Think of America's financial future this way: A large family goes to a
restaurant and stuffs itself on a full-course meal with drinks and dessert. The
waitress then hands the bill to the babbling infant in a high chair. Budget
deficits make today more enjoyable, but future generations of Americans will
have to pay the bills.
Most economists, including Greenspan, believe American taxpayers won't be
able to pay for the retirement and health-care promises that the government has
made to the baby-boom generation — those born between 1946 and 1964 — which
begins retiring in 2008.
"We owe it to those who will retire over the next couple of decades to
promise only what the government can deliver," Greenspan said Thursday.
Undisciplined government spending has done the unthinkable: It's united
experts from two rival think tanks with great influence in Washington — the
left-leaning Brookings Institution and the conservative Heritage Foundation.
Both accuse Congress and the White House of a "leadership deficit," punting when
it should be tackling issues affecting the nation's financial future.
"It's very obvious that something has to give. It's as simple as that," said
Stuart Butler, vice president of economic policy for the Heritage
Foundation.
Congress is struggling over modest proposals — such as whether to nick all
spending by 2 percent across the board, trim Medicaid, pinch food stamps and
farm subsidies — but ignoring big-ticket spending on tax cuts, defense, homeland
security, Medicare and Social Security.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office
(CBO), said current congressional efforts to trim spending won't make much
difference.
"It doesn't change our outlook substantially at all over the long haul," said
Holtz-Eakin, who formerly worked for Bush.
"The most important thing about the number this year is not the number, but
doing it."
Congress shows no interest in halting a Medicare drug benefit scheduled to
take effect next year. It will cost $700 billion over 10 years, and more after.
It's one reason why spending on Medicare, the health-care program for the
elderly and disabled, is projected to explode.
Medicare benefits promised to 40 million seniors will cost $2.7 trillion more
over the next 10 years than what it costs now, according to Heritage Foundation
economists.
Left unchanged, Medicare promises will cost $30 trillion over 75 years. That
would consume all federal revenues, leaving nothing for national defense — or
anything else.
"It's like falling off a 30-story building. For the first 20, it doesn't seem
so bad," Heritage's Butler said.
Congress displays no appetite for curbing the biggest expenses in the federal
budget — automatic "entitlement" spending, especially Social Security and
Medicare.
In 1985, spending on such entitlements took 45 percent of the federal budget.
It now takes 56 percent. A decade from now, it will take 62 percent, according
to the CBO.
It gets worse from there, as the first wave of boomers reaches full
retirement age in 2011.
"If there's one thing that could bankrupt the country, it's health care,"
Comptroller General Walker said.
But it's not just health care and retirement, not just war and homeland
security. Congress is spending lavishly on everything, said Brian Riedl,
Heritage's top budget analyst.
Spending has grown twice as rapidly under Bush than it had under Clinton.
Remove defense and homeland security costs and spending still jumped 22
percent.
"Everything is going up well past inflation" rates, Riedl said.
Since 2001, spending on education is up more than 100 percent, international
programs 94 percent and housing and commerce up 86 percent.
"We need a spending cap that helps lawmakers say no," Riedl said. He pointed
to the 1990 agreement between Congress and the first President Bush called
Pay-Go, which capped discretionary spending and required new spending to be
offset with cuts elsewhere.
Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., the ranking Democrat on the Senate Budget
Committee, recently introduced an amendment to return to Pay-Go. "There is an
old-fashioned idea," he said on the Senate floor.
"Pay for it."